August 23, 2006

Preparing for ‘The Perfect Storm’

KORKY KOROLUK

correspondent

OTTAWA

Present public policy in Ontario is inadequate to deal with “the immense problems that are upon us right now,” Gord Miller said, warning that an “environmental perfect storm” is imminent.

Speaking at the Association of Municipalities of Ontario, Miller, the province’s environment commissioner, said the approaching problems are caused by compound consumption and climate change.

The exponential growth we have come to expect can’t go on forever, he said, pointing out that growth of just three per cent annually (“which most people feel is nice healthy growth”) doubles the base in just 23 years. At that rate, we’ll need twice as much electrical power in 23 years as we do now and four times as much in 46 years — a factor that must be taken into account when planning the construction of new generation capacity.

And he raised the spectre of “peak oil.”

Peak oil isn’t running out of oil suddenly, but running out of cheap oil, with more expensive, non-conventional oil becoming more expensive as it, too, becomes more scarce.

The U.S. hit its peak in 1970, and oil production there has declined gradually ever since. The world peak is likely to arrive at about 2010 which, he said, leads to a question:

“The world now uses about 84 million barrels of oil a day. What happens when we can produce only 83 million barrels?”

Similarly, we are running out of cheap water, so people must begin thinking about peak water.

The Kyoto Accord to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is not a cure for climate change, but mitigation — “which might be failing.

“But climate change isn’t coming. It’s here. It’s real. And we’re not yet coming to grips with it,” he said.

It will mean drought, heat waves, violent storms, forest fires and floods, and he asked whether existing infrastructure can handle all that.

How is climate change likely to play out in Ontario?

“There will have to be more big pipes,” he said, “and we’ll see more water-quality problems, higher gasoline prices, higher electricity prices, and more nuclear generating stations. We’ll need to use incineration and more landfills to handle solid wastes. And we’ll see increased environmental health problems, including such things as allergies and asthma.”

Until now, consumption has always dominated conservation, but generations of rampant consumerism are going to give way to an era of facing the consequences.

The approaching “perfect storm” poses problems “that are going to demand a resolution in the coming months,” he said, “not years.”

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