October 9, 2008

DCN election poll finds Conservatives still in the lead

VINCE VERSACE

staff writer

Through two leader’s debates, increasing economic pressures and the late release of party platform, the Conservatives have remained the frontrunner in the Daily Commercial News’ online election reader poll.

“Polls tell us how people are feeling at a moment in time,” notes Dave Kains, partner of Metroline Research Group.

“And, as media moves into more immediate news, voters are becoming more volatile.”

The economic crisis in the United States became the main issue in the Canadian federal election. Questions of whether Canada is prepared for a major economic downturn and which party is best suited for such times became core campaign issues.

Support for the Conservatives in the Oct. 8 DCN online poll reached 43 per cent from 42 per cent after the party released its platform. At the same time, support for the NDP dropped to 25 per cent from 27 per cent and the Liberals hit 21 per cent in support up from 19 per cent. The Green Party remained at 10 per cent and the Bloc dropped to one per cent from two.

The online DCN poll is a voluntary, informal poll, available to all visitors of its website since the election was announced, and had over 500 participants. (Readers could only vote once.) Results from official polling companies have varied from DCN poll participants. The Harris/Decima poll of Oct. 8 had the Conservatives at 31 per cent, followed by the Liberals at 26 per cent, the NDP with 21 per cent, the Green Party (13 per cent) and Bloc (eight per cent).

As federal leaders headed into the French and English language debates last week, the Conservatives enjoyed a 15 point lead in the DCN poll with 44 per cent support, ahead of the NDP at 29 per cent. The Liberals sat in third at 17 per cent, followed by the Green Party (eight per cent) and Bloc (two per cent).

Liberal leader Stephane Dion unveiled his five-point economic plan during the leaders’ debates and Harper was roundly criticized for his staying the course approach for the Canadian economy. After the debates, the Conservatives lead dipped to 40 per cent in the DCN poll, the NDP climbed to 30 per cent and Liberals support hit 18 per cent. Green Party support reached nine per cent and the Bloc increased to three per cent.

How effective and telling are polls? Kains says polling companies want to speak to a minimum of 1,000 people for a national poll.

“In a large sense, it all depends on who you are talking to and how random and large the sample size is,” explains Kains. “You have to study the results and look at the trends over time.”

One trend in the DCN poll has been the closing gap between second place NDP and third place Liberals support. On Oct. 1, the NDP enjoyed a 12 point cushion on the Liberals and by Oct. 8 that spread decreased to five points.

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