April 29, 2009

Low interest rates may not boost privately financed construction in 2009

Despite historically low interest rates, privately financed construction will be depressed well into 2010, says CanaData chief economist Alex Carrick. He believes falling corporate profits, weak product demand and the credit squeeze are all contributing to the cyclical malaise.

He expects public sector investment demand will fill in part of the gap. But how effective this investment will be depends on success in resolving three issues.

  1. There must be effective co-ordination of financing between two and sometimes three levels of government: federal, provincial and municipal.
  2. Shelf-ready work does not always mean what it implies. There may still be delays for some of these projects based on neighbourhood impact and environmental studies.
  3. Some local governments will initiate projects without being sure that the funding will come through. Therefore, they are likely to give priority to work that has already been planned or is absolutely essential. This is not the long-term forward-planning intent of the federal and provincial government programs.

Alex Carrick discusses these issues in more detail and construction costs, regional issues and U.S. protectionism in Major Issues Facing Canada’s Construction Industry to the End of this Year.

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