August 19, 2009

Ask Alex

What impact is stimulus spending having on housing?

As countries around the world roll out stimulus spending plans, the residential construction market is experiencing significant changes, says Reed Construction Data chief economist Alex Carrick.

China is increasing its money supply at a rapid pace to fund its stimulus spending programs. Lending in China is up by double in the first half of this year versus the same period last year.

Part of that is stimulating housing.

“Chinese citizens are jumping into the housing market,” Carrick says. “This is leading to a surge in housing construction.”

China’s housing recovery is corresponding with the timing of an upturn in the U.S. housing market. U.S. new home sales have finally started to move off the shelf again and starts will surely follow.

What does that mean for Canada?

Canada’s housing market is the beneficiary of the same kinds of privately and publicly sourced factors. The decline in housing starts here only began in fall 2008 versus a January 2006 turning point in the U.S.

“The recovery in starts in Canada may be long and slow,” Carrick says, “but the resale home market is doing well and this is encouraging with regard to new housing.”

For more articles by Alex Carrick on the Canadian and U.S. economies, please see his market insights. Mr. Carrick also has a blog site. His lifestyle blog entries are at www.alexcarrick.com.

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