January 19, 2010
Economic Snapshot | Jan. 20, 2010
Expect an older, healthier labour force to retire later
JOHN CLINKARD
consulting economist, CanaData
Based on the latest population data, the median age of Canada’s working-age population aged 15 to 64 is now just over 40 years old, 5.5% older than the 39.5 years reached just 10 years ago.
According to Statistics Canada, this aging of the population is the result of families having fewer children, combined with the fact that we are, on average, living longer.
Since 1980, for example, the rate of natural increase (number of births minus deaths per 1,000 people) has dropped from 8.1 to just under four.
Over the same period, the average person’s life expectancy at birth has increased from 75 years to over 80.
The key driver of this aging of the labour force is the baby boomers, the bulk of whom are now between the ages of 45 and 64.
Boomers account for a record 40.4% of the nation’s working-age population, compared to 33% in 1999.
Over this same period, the size of the 30 to 44 age group has fallen from 36.6% to 30.1%, its smallest proportion since 1976.
Regionally, the provinces with oldest populations – i.e. the highest median age – are in the East, led by Newfoundland and Labrador (42.9 years), Nova Scotia (42.6), New Brunswick (42.4), Prince Edward Island (41.7) and Quebec (41.1).
By far the youngest province is Alberta (35.6 years), followed by Saskatchewan and Manitoba (37.7) and Ontario (39.2).
According to Statistics Canada, the structure of the Canadian working-age population is similar to that of several major developed countries, including Germany, France and the United Kingdom.
Looking forward, the steady aging of the working-age population, accompanied by increasing life expectancy and a gradual shrinking due to a dearth of new entrants, will probably encourage employers to relax mandatory retirement rules.
This will provide incentives to individuals who choose to postpone their retirement beyond the 65-year norm.
John Clinkard has over 30 years’ experience as an economist in international, national and regional research and analysis with leading financial institutions and media outlets in Canada.
Key age groups as a per cent of total population
Data Source: Statistics Canada/Chart: Reed Construction Data, Canadata
Print | Email | Comment
