February 23, 2010
Economy at a Glance
Ontario has some winners, but mainly losers, in major city labour market rankings
Ontario has some winners, but mainly losers, in CanaData’s latest ranking of major city labour markets. CanaData’s ranking takes into account year-over-year employment growth (fastest to slowest) and the latest unemployment rate (lowest to highest).
Ontario cities in which job markets are performing better than the national average are those with a strong government, law enforcement and/or academic presence.
Included are Kingston, Ottawa and Thunder Bay. Hamilton’s high ranking (10th) is due to better steel markets as durable goods orders improve. Toronto (18th) is well down on the list, although service sector jobs are coming back.
Hope for lagging Ontario cities – London, Oshawa, Kitchener, St. Catharines-Niagara, Windsor and Sudbury – lies mainly in the latest reports on manufacturing and auto sector activity in the country. Manufacturing sales in Canada rose 1.6% in December versus November. This was the sixth increase in the past seven months.
In another positive reading, the inventory-to-sales ratio in manufacturing has dropped back down to almost normal from being too high by one-third.
Provincially, the best manufacturing gains in the latest month came in Ontario.
Motor vehicles and primary metals led the advance. New motor vehicle sales have been increasing over the past year. At 129,000 units in December, they were slightly above the monthly average for the full year of 124,000 units, but were still below average monthly sales of 140,000 units in all of 2008.
Sudbury is a special case. That city has been enduring a strike at mining-giant Vale Inco for nearly the past seven months. While the striking miners are not included in the employment decline, the layoffs by and of firms and people supplying and servicing the mining industry are.
The other manufacturing sector with particular strength in the latest month was aerospace products and parts: +28.1% for sales in January after -17.1% in November. The per cent changes in this sector are often big and volatile.
Much of the activity is located in Quebec. Montreal (15th spot) is sitting just about halfway in the ranking of all major labour markets across the country.
Relative to Toronto in the ranking, Vancouver (9th) and Edmonton (12th) are doing better, but Calgary (19th) has fallen behind.
As for lowest unemployment rates across Canada, these belong to Quebec City (4.5%), Regina (4.8%), Saskatoon (4.8%), Winnipeg (5.5%), Kingston (5.9%), Ottawa-Gatineau (6.1%), Sherbrooke, Que. (6.1%) and Halifax (6.5%).
For more articles by Alex Carrick on the Canadian and U.S. economies, please see his market insights. Mr. Carrick also has an economics blog. His lifestyle blog is at www.alexcarrick.com
CanaData's ranking of labour markets, best (#1) to worst (#27) — January 2010
- Saskatoon
- Sherbrooke, Que.
- Abbotsford, B.C.
- Kingston, Ont.
- Halifax
- Winnipeg
- Quebec City
- Saguenay, Que.
- Vancouver
- Hamilton, Ont.
- Ottawa-Gatineau, Ont.-Que.
- Edmonton
- Saint John, N.B.
- Thunder Bay, Ont.
- Montreal
- Regina
- St. John’s, N.L.
- Toronto
- Calgary
- Victoria
- London, Ont.
- Trois-Rivieres, Que.
- Oshawa, Ont.
- Kitchener, Ont.
- St. Catharines-Niagara, Ont.
- Windsor, Ont.
- Sudbury, Ont.
