February 29, 2012
2011 census results have been compiled and they largely confirm expectations
Chief Economist, CanaData
In early February, Statistics Canada released first results from its 2011 Census of Population.
This is the gold standard for people trying to understand the changing social structure of the nation.
The material is released in several stages. The first set of information is based only on short-form census responses. Therefore, there shouldn’t be the same doubts about accuracy that are sure to crop up later when more detailed information is released.
Remember it was the long-form census that gave rise to such controversy when the federal government decided to drop the requirement that it be mandatory.
The 2011 results largely verify what a host of other indicators have been suggesting.
Most of the analysis compares what has happened in the latest five years with what transpired in the preceding half decade leading up to the 2006 census.
Perhaps the most important number to keep in mind is that the population of the country over the whole time frame from 2006 to 2011 grew by 5.9%. That’s the cumulative increase.
What’s the significance? For starters, +5.9% was faster than the population change of +5.4% in the preceding five years, culminating in the 2006 census.
It was also faster than in any other G8 nation.
During the last ten years, about two-thirds of the increase in population resulted from net immigration (i.e., immigrants minus emigrants), with the remainder coming from natural causes (i.e., births minus deaths).
For specific regions in the country, an additional effect has played a key role - interprovincial migration. This has been mainly about going to where the jobs are.
With respect to population growth and the economy, the argument is circular. The former will accelerate in regions where the economy is performing best. But then economic growth will receive an extra boost from the population influx.
In the “old days”, manufacturing-oriented Ontario used to be a prime beneficiary of this effect. With manufacturing now struggling and resources in the ascendant, it’s the West and parts of the East that are reaping the rewards of this symbiosis.
Most indicators have been pointing to Western Canada, with its resource wealth, as the leader in economic growth over the past decade.
Therefore, it’s no great surprise that the West has also led in population gains.
There is one notable exception. There are suburbs within the Toronto urban area that have been acquiring residents at a very fast pace. More on this in a moment.
Let’s return to the +5.9% population gain for Canada as a whole. Three of the four provinces in the West grew at faster rates. In fact, they were the only provinces in the country to do so.
Alberta (+10.8%) led the way, followed by British Columbia (+7.0%) and Saskatchewan (+6.7%).
Only Manitoba in the West (+5.2%) had a slower rate of population growth than the national average.
In Eastern Canada, Ontario (+5.7%) was out front followed by Quebec (+4.7%).
P.E.I. (+3.2%) led the Atlantic Region.
In the northern territories, population growth in the Yukon (+11.6%) was impressive, as it also was Nunavut (+8.3%). The Northwest Territories (0.0%) came up flat.
In a comparison of 2011 and 2006 census results, Saskatchewan recorded the greatest change in its population growth rate.
Prior to that province’s 6.7% gain in the 2011 census, it lost 1.1% of its population in each of the 2006 and 2001 censuses.
Newfoundland and Labrador also recorded a dramatic turnaround. Its 1.8% gain in the 2011 census was the first population increase since the time frame between 1981 and 1986.
B.C.’s population gain of 7.0% was better than its 2006 result of 5.3%.
Quebec’s population growth also speeded up, to +4.7% from +4.3%. Nevertheless, for the first time ever, the combined population of the four western provinces is now greater than for Quebec plus the Atlantic region.
From nearly a third of Canada’s population fifty years ago, Quebec’s share has fallen to 23.6%.
Ontario’s population growth (+5.7%) in the 2011 census not only dropped below the national rate for the first time in 25 years, it was also lower than in the previous census (+6.6%).
Ontario still had strong immigration, but at a level 100,000 lower than in the previous five-years.
When individual city results are examined, some of Ontario’s luster is restored, thanks to the Toronto urban area.
The three largest census metropolitan areas (CMAs) in Canada accounted for 35% of the total Canadian population in the latest census.
Vancouver had the fastest growth rate over the combined five years, +9.3%, but Toronto was close behind, at +9.2%. Montreal trailed at +5.2%.
Those three cities, with their extraordinary cultural diversity, benefitted from immigration.
Among all of the nation’s largest urban centres, however, the fastest five-year growth rates were recorded in Calgary (+12.6%), Edmonton (+12.1%) and Saskatoon (+11.4%).
To illustrate the boom in Saskatoon, its previous five-year growth rate was only +3.5%.
Regina also performed well in the 2011 census, with a gain in population of +8.0%.
Only two of Canada’s 33 CMAs recorded population declines in the latest five years, Windsor (-1.3%) and Thunder Bay (-1.1%). It’s a sign of the times that they’re both situated in Ontario.
Results from one final geographic sub-category are worth noting.
Among municipalities, two of the three fastest population increases were recorded in the Toronto CMA – Milton (+56.5%) and Whitchurch-Stouffville (+54.3%).
Shoe-horned between those two was Martensville, Saskatchewan, (+55.0%), located in the CMA of Saskatoon.
For more articles by Alex Carrick on the Canadian and U.S. economies, please see his market insights. Mr. Carrick also has an economics blog.
