Canadian Economic Outlook

February 10, 2012

Excellent news for Canada from December’s merchandise trade data

Canada’s merchandie trade surplus rose in December, according to Statistics Canada, but exports of natural gas to the United States dropped. Hydraulic fracturing means shale gas is promoting switches from other energy sources and there will be new investment in chemical and plastics plants using natural gas as a feedstock.

February 9, 2012

2011 census results have been compiled and they largely confirm expectations

Statistics Canada has released results from its 2011 Census of Population. Western Canada has let in population gains while the country as a whole grew by 5.9 per cent

February 9, 2012

Private sector non-res building outpaced public sector construction in 2011

Based on recently-released year-end statistics, the total value of investment in non-residential building construction increased by 3.3% in 2011 following a gain of 1.2% in 2010.

February 7, 2012

2012 is shaping up to be a difficult year for labour

The employment level in January stayed flat, according to Statistics Canada. Recent events have shown this is a difficult year for labour. Caterpillar Inc. says it will close its Electro Motive Diesel plant in London, Ontario while the City of Toronto won concessions from its unionized outside workers.

February 3, 2012

B.C. in the spotlight as Canada’s place in the world shifts course

British Columbia is the province where the future is most clearly being re-defined. Resource projects, once they fight their way through to approvals, will provide B.C. with long-term financial vitality.

February 1, 2012

Construction costs are up year over year, but have eased in latest six months

As measured by CanaData, the price of construction materials rose 3.1 per cent between December, 2010 and December, 2011.While lumber prices have been essentially flat for six years, the price of non-residential structural stell is up 11.3 per cent year-over-year.

January 31, 2012

Canada’s leading indicator series continued to charge ahead in December

Canada’s leading indicator series continued to set a torrid pace in December, according to Statistics Canada.

January 30, 2012

A wealth of fair-to-great data on year-end 2011 and early 2012

In the past couple of days, there has been a welter of data released on the U.S. and Canadian economies.

January 26, 2012

Western Metros look like they will lead in 2012 and 2013

In light of the fact that unemployment rates in Regina (4.1%), Edmonton (5.4%), Saskatoon (5.4%), and Calgary (5.7%) have consistently averaged well below the national average (7.3%) over the past six months, it is not all that surprising that the Conference Board in Canada expects that economic growth in the largest metro areas in Alberta and Saskatchewan will continue to outpace activity in the rest of the country over the next 12 to 18 months.

January 25, 2012

Railroad carloadings as a proxy for how Canada’s overall economy is doing

While investment firm Pershing Square lobbies to appoint Hunter Harrison as chief executive officer of Canadian Pacific Railway, Statistics Canada has released its monthly report on railway carloadings. Loadings of iron ore and coal have dropped, suggesting slower growth in Europe and China requires less steelmaking capacity.

January 25, 2012

2012 holds promise but there’s no denying the uncertainty (part 2)

With the startup of hearings, Canada is embarking on its own major pipeline debate. Enbridge’s Northern Gateway project proposes to ship half a million barrels of oil per day from fields in Alberta to Kitimat on B.C.’s Pacific Coast, for tanker transport to customers in Asia.

January 24, 2012

Consumer debt in Canada going into home ownership rather than retail sales

Retail sales in Canada are up 3.1 per cent over the past year, according to Statistics Canada. But the growth rate is 7.6 per cent in the United States, according to the Census Bureau

January 24, 2012

2012 holds promise but there’s no denying the uncertainty (part 1)

The following is an assessment of where the world economy presently stands, with additional observations on specific problem areas and how things might turn out differently than expected.

January 23, 2012

December home starts in Canada again defied expectations

National housing starts in December, at 200,200 units seasonally adjusted and annualized, returned to a surprisingly high number according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

January 18, 2012

U.S. employment gain in December confirms tendency towards improvement

In December, 200,000 net new jobs were created in the United States, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate declined slightly from 8.6% the month before to 8.5%.

January 16, 2012

Canada’s November exports provide insight into resource sector investments

Statistics Canada reported that Canada’s merchandise trade account had a surplus of $12.9 billion in November, meaning we exported more than we imported. The dependence of the Canadian economy on exports means construction of manufacturing plants and mega resource projects depend on the international economy.

January 12, 2012

Eroding confidence casts shadow over consumer spending in early 2012

According to the Conference Board in Canada’s most recent survey, the Index of Consumer Confidence dropped by 6.5% in December.

January 10, 2012

December home starts in Canada again defied expectations

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. reported higher-than-normal housing starts in December, when the figure exceeded 200,000, seasonally-adjusted and annualized. However, the inventory of multi-unit houses, or condominiums, is too high, especially in Toronto, which had a 7.9 per cent unemployment rate.

January 10, 2012

How stock prices have performed depends on the timing of the data points

This is a time of year when many analysts choose to examine how well equities have performed.

January 9, 2012

Canada stands firmly in the middle of the road as it enters 2012

I’m not sure what T. S. Eliot would have thought about the matter, but 2011 is closing out with neither a bang nor a whimper.