Canadian Economic Outlook

March 15, 2010

CanaData’s February year-to-date construction starts a mix of pluses and minuses

CanaData’s construction starts statistics for buildings are in a lot better shape through February of this year than they were through the first two months of last year. In fact, they are 51% better. That’s the percentage increase for the square footage of residential starts and, by coincidence, it is also the percentage increase for the square footage of non-residential building starts.

March 11, 2010

Expect higher interest rates at mid-year, possibly before

Two recent developments point to higher interest rates in the not-too-distant future.

March 10, 2010

Stock markets in U.S. and Canada move in sync with positive GDP growth

The major North American stock market indices had a jog down in January 2010, but they bounced back in February. At February’s month-end, they were 2.5% to 4.0% higher than at January’s month-end. The 52-week low points for the indices were all recorded in February of last year. Therefore, on a year-over-year basis, the stock markets are looking quite positive. All four indices have made back between 45% and 60% of their most recent peak to trough declines.

March 9, 2010

Investment intentions up strongly in Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia

Driven partly by the stronger growth of profits during the second half of 2009 and sustained government spending, investment in non-residential construction and machinery and equipment is projected to increase by 5.3% in 2010.

March 8, 2010

Pace of Canada’s GDP growth accelerates in 2009’s fourth quarter to +5.0%

The nationwide economy grew 5.0% (quarter to quarter annualized) in the final quarter of last year, according to Statistics Canada’s latest update. That was the fastest growth rate since the third quarter of 2000, almost a decade ago.

March 8, 2010

Unsold inventories of singles and multiples go their separate ways

February 2010 housing starts in Canada continued along their remarkable recovery path, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.

March 5, 2010

CanaData’s February construction starts a mix of pluses and minuses

CanaData’s construction starts statistics for buildings are in a lot better shape through February of this year than they were through the first two months of last year. In fact, they are 51% better.

March 4, 2010

Stronger profits in 2010 point to full-time job growth

While many have described the current recovery in Canada as sub-par and “cyclically challenged,” this view is not supported by the most recent quarterly financial statistics for corporations.

March 2, 2010

Start defusing Canada’s demographically driven fiscal time bomb now, not later

A recent report by the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) reiterates what many have been saying for some time.

February 25, 2010

Inflation and retail sales implications for interest rates

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has released January 2010 Consumer Price Index estimates. They show a 2.6% increase for all prices in the latest month versus January 2009.

February 23, 2010

Multi-unit housing in Canada growing in significance compared to singles

Several interesting trends emerge from an analysis of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.’s (CMHC) 2009 provincial starts figures. They show up clearly in the accompanying graphs.

February 23, 2010

Stronger growth of late 2009 will likely carry over into 2010

As the statistical picture of the Canadian economy’s performance in the final quarter of 2009 becomes clearer, it appears that growth in the quarter will be stronger than most analysts expected just a few months ago.

February 22, 2010

CanaData’s latest 2010 housing starts forecast raised to 180,000 units

National housing starts have averaged 182,000 units annualized over the past four months, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This is a giant step up from their low points of last year: 118,000 units in February and 112,000 units in April.

February 19, 2010

Canadian retail sales in December OK, verging on pretty good

Current-dollar national retail sales in December 2009 were +0.4% month to month and +6.7% year over year, according to Statistics Canada. On a three-month moving average “smoothed” basis, they were +2.1% year over year.

February 18, 2010

Heading into 2010, Saskatoon’s economic health is second to none

Saskatoon appears to be leading the country in terms of overall economic health. Its rate of job creation in January was the second fastest among the 27 largest metro areas in the country. Saskatoon has the third lowest rate of unemployment.

February 17, 2010

Ontario has some winners, but mainly losers, in major city labour market rankings

Ontario has some winners, but mainly losers, in CanaData’s latest ranking of major city labour markets. CanaData’s ranking takes into account year-over-year employment growth (fastest to slowest) and the latest unemployment rate (lowest to highest).

February 16, 2010

Expect a full-time, not part-time, job recovery in the coming year

At first glance, the larger-than-expected jump in total employment (43,000) suggests that as Canadian employers entered the new year, they were more positive about future sales and production prospects and needed to add staff to boost output.

February 11, 2010

Office construction fundamentals still weak, but starting to stabilize

Commercial office construction for Canada as a whole will probably remain in the doldrums at least for the next four to six quarters, according to a recent report by Cushman & Wakefield.

February 10, 2010

Canadian housing starts recover nicely in January 2010

January 2010 was the second-highest level of national housing starts in the past four months, with 186,300 units seasonally-adjusted and annualized, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC).

February 9, 2010

With few exceptions, productivity growth across Canada has been sub-par

It is generally acknowledged that the key to Canada’s longer term economic health is our ability to increase productivity.