Canadian Economic Outlook

June 18, 2013

There are two ways to lower the home-price-to-average-earnings ratio

Previously, I’ve written that there is concern home prices in Canada may have become considerably more expensive than in the United States.

June 17, 2013

Who dares to cast stones in this glass house?

Canada’s moral compass is swinging wildly about and, though I’m reluctant to say it, the nation has become more interesting as a result.

June 14, 2013

The retail sales, residential real estate merry-go-round

Current-dollar (i.e., not adjusted for inflation) retail sales in March stayed the same as in February, according to Statistics Canada. On a year-over-year basis, they were +1.1%.

June 13, 2013

The key leading indicators of business investment are flashing yellow for now

The combination of a sharp contraction in after-tax profits of non-financial corporations over the past year, a steady downtrend in investment plans reported by the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey and the retreat in industrial capacity utilization rates during the second half of 2012 appear to have caused total non-residential business investment to almost stall in the first quarter of 2013.

June 5, 2013

Price and politics reshape Canada’s energy scene

It seems the people of B.C. are just as concerned about jobs as everybody else. The May 14^th provincial election established their priority quite clearly.

June 4, 2013

Which provinces are punching above their weight in export sales?

While Canada has a vibrant and growing services sector, the nation’s economic success is still closely aligned with export sales of both raw materials and manufactured goods.

June 3, 2013

Interest rates respond to unemployment: a currency war in sheep’s clothing

After a substantial drop in total employment in March (-54,000 jobs), the labour market picked up slightly in April (+12,000 jobs), according to Statistics Canada.

May 30, 2013

External demand should drive the B.C. economy despite domestic challenges

Mid-way through the second quarter of 2013, the economic climate in British Columbia is showing very few signs of spring. This observation is illustrated by the fact that, year-to-date (April), total employment in the province is essentially unchanged compared to the same period in 2012.

May 27, 2013

Three resource provinces display an odd sense of timing

Canada’s merchandise trade balance in March moved up from a minor deficit to a slightly positive surplus, according to Statistics Canada. While this is good news, it falls well short of what’s needed.

May 24, 2013

America’s improving labour market and Ontario’s provincial budget

Slowly but surely. That’s the approach the U.S. economy is taking. The improvement is definitely showing up in labour market conditions, but patience is required.

May 22, 2013

A Three-Pronged Path for Canadian Construction Material Costs

CanaData calculates construction material cost indices based on the Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) and Raw Materials Product Price Index (RMPI) series from Statistics Canada.

May 22, 2013

In stock markets, U.S. proves it’s the big engine that could

The major stock market indices in the U.S. are continuing to impress. At April’s month-end closings, both the Dow Jones Industrials (DJI) average and the more broadly-based S&P 500 were at or within a whisker of all-time highs.

May 21, 2013

Some investors are betting against Canada. Should we be worried? Part 2

Canada’s resource sector isn’t the only one struggling to stay afloat in this storm-tossed boat. Coal miners in the Powder River Basin of Wyoming and Montana — where 40% of total U.S. production occurs — want to tap into the lucrative export markets of China and India.

May 17, 2013

Some investors are betting against Canada. Should we be worried? Part 1

Some investors are placing bets against Canada. They’re short selling our currency, avoiding our equities and talking down our economy. Should we be worried?

May 16, 2013

Gender Equality in Canadian Politics

When Margaret Thatcher died in early April, there was a great deal of public discussion about her legacy. Underlying all the commentary was the fact she was Britain’s first female Prime Minister.

May 16, 2013

World’s most expensive country – Australia; cheapest – India

According to the latest (March) inflation statistics released by Statistics Canada, the cost of a basket of goods purchased by an “average” Canadian household has risen by 1% over the past twelve months. Further, the Statistics Canada CPI report for March revealed that, on average, it cost the average household almost 5% more to live in Edmonton than in Toronto.

May 15, 2013

Colour the U.S. and Canadian economies beige

The advance estimate for U.S. economic growth in the first quarter of this year is +2.5%, seasonally adjusted and annualized (SAAR), according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

May 13, 2013

Unlocking one of the mysteries of U.S. politics

Political machinations around the world are becoming increasingly chaotic. The prime examples may be in Europe, where the austerity-versus-stimulus debate has resulted in governments being replaced in Greece, France, Spain and Italy.

May 10, 2013

An overview of prices and sales in the diverging U.S. and Canadian housing markets

There is a wealth of information available about residential real estate markets in the U.S. and Canada. With home starts in the two countries now taking divergent paths — trending upwards to the south and downwards to the north — this is a good time to review some the latest data.

May 9, 2013

Keeping an Eagle Eye on Canadian Home Starts - So Far, a Genteel Decline

National new home starts in April were 175,000 units seasonally adjusted and annualized (SAAR), according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).