Canadian Economic Outlook

February 9, 2010

With few exceptions, productivity growth across Canada has been sub-par

It is generally acknowledged that the key to Canada’s longer term economic health is our ability to increase productivity.

February 8, 2010

2010 to be another difficult year for construction, but take heart over the longer-term outlook

CanaData’s latest square footage forecasts are set out for provinces and regions of the country in the accompanying table. The forecast was made after compilation of 2009 year-end results.

February 4, 2010

International Monetary Fund expects stronger recovery for world and Canada

The International Monetary Fund’s outlook for global economic growth is considerably stronger than it projected just three months ago.

February 4, 2010

A fuller Canadian understanding of the personal versus business mood disparity in the U.S.

The disparities between the personal and business sides of the U.S. economy are glaring. The mood of the former has been particularly hammered by weak housing markets. In Canada, we saw some declines in home prices. These were especially acute in regions of the country where there was an earlier speculative fever tied to the commodity price boom just after mid-decade.

February 3, 2010

Canadian retail sales join many other indicators on an upward trend

In the ongoing effort to monitor where consumer spending is headed, Statistics Canada reported that retail sales in November 2009 declined 0.3% versus October. However, this left them 1.2% ahead of November 2008.

February 2, 2010

Consumer bankruptcies slowing, business bankruptcies already low

The most recent data on bankruptcies in Canada reflect two sharply contrasting developments

February 1, 2010

Latest inflation rates in U.S. and Canada put pressure on central banks

December 2009 inflation rates have recently been released by government agencies for the U.S. and Canada. For both countries, the month-to-month change was minor: +0.1% in the U.S. and -0.3% in Canada. However, it is the year-over-year figure that gets the headlines and draws the most attention.

January 29, 2010

Canada’s +0.4% GDP advance in November a pleasant surprise

Statistics Canada reported today that the nation’s gross domestic product in November 2009 advanced 0.4% versus October 2009. This was the month-to-month change (not the annualized increase) in “real” inflation-adjusted dollars.

January 28, 2010

After weak start to 2010, non-residential construction should start to gain strength

Despite a 3.3% increase in institutional construction in the fourth quarter of 2009, the total value of non-residential construction fell by 2.5%

January 27, 2010

Canadian construction material costs are still negative, but the situation is changing quickly

Much of the following information is based on the Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) and Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) series published by Statistics Canada. The latest results are for November 2009. Building material costs are now -2.9% year over year.

January 26, 2010

2010 to be another difficult year for construction

Last year’s total ICI (industrial + commercial + institutional) starts, at 48.5 million square feet, were down considerably versus the level achieved in 2008 of 75.5 million, according to CanaData’s latest square footage forecasts.

January 26, 2010

Canada’s six most magnetic metro areas for migrants

In a recent study of the 50 largest metro areas in Canada, the Conference Board of Canada found six that had an optimal mix of factors (or magnets) that made them particularly attractive to newcomers, regardless of their place of origin.

January 25, 2010

U.S. foreign trade position becomes more familiar; Canada’s remains an anomaly

In November 2009, the U.S. foreign trade deficit in goods and services was on the rise again, which was a return to a more typical position, while in Canada, the merchandise trade position shifted back into deficit, which was not normal at all in a historical sense

January 22, 2010

Canadian retail sales join many other indicators on an upward trend

In the ongoing effort to monitor where consumer spending is headed, Statistics Canada reported that retail sales in November 2009 declined 0.3% versus October. However, this left them 1.2% ahead of November 2008.

January 21, 2010

Bank of Canada’s business outlook survey is flashing green for growth in 2010

In its just released Winter 2009-10 Business Outlook Survey, the Bank of Canada reports that the net number of firms expecting sales to improve in the next 12 months remains close to the record high reached in the third quarter of 2009.

January 21, 2010

Carrick: U.S. housing starts were lacklustre in 2009

U.S. housing starts in December 2009 were only 557,000 units, almost dead on with their 12-month average throughout last year of 552,000 units, CanaData chief economist Alex Carrick notes in his latest report.

January 20, 2010

Canadian construction material costs still negative

Building material costs are now -2.9% year over year, according to Statistics Canada's latest report. While this is a negative figure, it is much less so than the -11.5% of only two months previously. The situation has changed quickly.

January 19, 2010

Expect an older, healthier labour force to retire later

Based on the latest population data, the median age of Canada’s working-age population aged 15 to 64 is now just over 40 years old, 5.5% older than the 39.5 years reached just 10 years ago.

January 18, 2010

December labour market reports in U.S. and Canada take wind out of economies’ sails

Everybody sit down, breathe deeply and try to relax. The December labour market reports in both the U.S. and Canada are disheartening.

January 15, 2010

60% of jobs lost in Canada last year were in Ontario

Nearly 60 per cent of the jobs lost in Canada in 2009 were in Ontario, Alex Carrick notes in his latest report. “To understand how severe this was, consider that Ontario’s labour force makes up slightly less than 40% of the national total,” he says.